How much should I offer on a house?

What sets a fair offer

A fair offer starts from what similar properties sold for, not from the asking price. The asking price tells you where the seller starts, and the sales tell you where buyers actually paid.

4 inputs shape the number you write down.

• Comparable sales: 3 to 5 similar properties sold nearby in the last year.
• Estimated value: an estimate for the exact address, checked against the sales behind it.
• Listing history: every asking price, cut, removal, and relisting.
• Seller motivation: days on market, price cuts, and the Seller Motivation Score.

A real example from a Homesage.ai report

We ran a Full Property Report on a single-family property listed for sale in Sacramento, California, on 19 October 2026. It has 4 bedrooms and 2,608 sq ft on a 0.63-acre lot.

The list price sits $20,830 below the estimated value of the property as it stands. The 5 sales behind that estimate ran from $750,000 to $1,250,000, all within 0.3 miles.

Only 1 of the 5 sales was rated Outdated, like this property. It sold for $750,000 with 1,704 sq ft, 904 sq ft smaller. The 4 sales rated Good or Excellent ran from $1,000,000 to $1,250,000.

The sales say $750,000 for an Outdated property next door and up to $1,250,000 once the work is done.

The seller cut the price by $65,000 after 43 days. A Seller Motivation Score of 27 points to some room to negotiate. Your goal sets the ceiling. The report's flip view caps the offer at $706,318 for a 25% return. Its residence view, for a buyer who renovates and lives there, caps it at $829,754.

How to work out how much to offer

1. Pull 3 to 5 sales of similar properties nearby from the last 12 months.
2. Adjust each sale for condition, size, and bedrooms. Here 4 of the 5 sales were rated Good or Excellent, and this property is rated Outdated.
3. Read the listing history. This property dropped from $960,000 to $895,000 in 43 days.
4. Check the seller's motivation. A score of 27 and a recent price cut point to room to negotiate.
5. Price the work. The report puts the estimated renovation cost at $127,655.
6. Set your opening offer and your walk-away price before you talk to the agent.

What moves your offer up or down

Nearby sales move it most. The one Outdated sale at $750,000 sets a floor, and the renovated sales up to $1,250,000 show what the work adds.

The market moves it next. The report's market outlook for this ZIP code shows homes averaging 45 days on market, and a price forecast of minus 0.4% over 3 months. Flood risk is Minimal, with the property in FEMA zone X.

Common offer mistakes to avoid

• Starting from the asking price: Start from the sales. Here the asking price already sits $20,830 below the estimated value.
• Ignoring the price history: A $65,000 cut in 43 days tells you more about the seller than the asking price does.
• Using the estimated ARV for an as-is offer: The $1,211,600 estimated ARV assumes renovation. For an offer on the property as it stands, use the sales and the estimated value.
• Skipping the work: The estimated renovation cost of $127,655 comes before any gain in value. Get a contractor's quote before you set your number.

Frequently asked questions